On October 16, USCET and the Institute for Global Cooperation and Understanding (iGCU) of Peking University co-hosted a closed-door virtual dialogue, bringing together Chinese and American experts to discuss the 2024 U.S. presidential election and its potential impacts on U.S.-China relations. USCET has organized programs to discuss and interpret every major U.S. election since 2000. 

USCET’s founder and executive chair, Ambassador Julia Chang Bloch, opened the event by remarking on the increasing frequency and severity of crises in the U.S.-China relationship, expressing hope that the discussion would provide valuable insights into the challenges ahead.

USCET’s executive director, Rosie Levine, moderated the first session, titled “Demystifying the 2024 Presidential Election.” One participant noted that both the Trump and Harris campaigns prioritized domestic issues over foreign policy in their campaign rhetoric. One expert noted that trade has been a constant issue for Trump and that this issue has manifested itself in his campaign promises of tariffs and deporting immigrants. Participants also noted that Harris would likely continue Biden’s policies towards trade and China. The MAGA movement’s future, Harris’ apparent mobilization of Asian American voters, and swing states’ stake in trade policy were all touched on briefly in a moderated discussion. 

The participants then transitioned to the second session titled “Impact of U.S. Election on China-U.S. Relations,” moderated by Jie Dalei, senior research fellow of the Institute of International and Strategic Studies and associate professor at the School of International Studies of Peking University. A professor opened the discussion by stating that China features in presidential elections due to its conspicuous absence, and both of the campaigns’ rhetoric had rarely focused on China. Participants also discussed how Trump would likely reduce the pressure on China over geo-political issues such as the South China Sea and Taiwan. A participant echoed the previous session, stating that a second Trump term would likely see more aggressive postures toward China over issues such as trade, high-tech industries, and people-to-people exchanges. In contrast, a Harris administration would likely bring more continuity of Biden’s policies. Another professor noted that there is a perspective in both the Democratic and Republican parties that policies towards China have undercut American openness and competitiveness in the world. A positive take offered that the election may bring an opportunity to reset the tone of U.S.-China relations within the first 100 days of the new administration. 

Rosie Levine delivered closing remarks, thanking the participants for a rich discussion. She noted that while China’s role was not a primary focus in U.S. campaign rhetoric, it remains a significant underlying factor in many major issues. Qi Haotian, assistant professor at the School of International Studies and Secretary General of the iGCU of Peking University, concluded the dialogue by observing that this election brings significant uncertainties to the bilateral relationship. In closing, he emphasized that a key takeaway from the discussion was the importance of maintaining open and candid channels between the two countries.